Hurricane Season Not Over: Late Season Surge Could Bring Fresh Storms

Forecasters are warning that unusually warm ocean temperatures could fuel up to three named tropical storms in the Atlantic basin during November, with activity possibly extending into December.
“We’ve been saying since March that the end of this year’s hurricane season could be quite active,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a media advisory on Monday.
“We’re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November, with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.”
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The immediate focus is on the southern Caribbean, where forecasters see a high potential for tropical development as early as Friday.
For the rest of the month, Florida and the East Coast look set to bear the brunt of any storms that make their way to the U.S., while the western Gulf Coast states appear to face minimal risk.
“The entire state of Florida up into the Carolinas could be at risk of experiencing another tropical impact this season. This region is already vulnerable after dealing with multiple landfalls earlier this year,” DaSilva said.
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“The western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.”
If storms develop, the next three would be named Patty, Rafael, and Sara.
The unusually active late season is linked to record-high ocean heat content in the ocean.
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“Sea surface temperatures and the ocean heat content, which measures the amount of available heat from the ocean surface down to 2,000 meters [6,500 feet], currently remains at almost record-high levels in the Caribbean,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and climate expert Brett Anderson said in the media advisory.
He noted that this warming trend could lead to longer hurricane seasons in the future, with both earlier starts and later endings becoming more common.
November hurricanes making U.S. landfall are rare but not unprecedented. The most recent was Hurricane Nicole in 2022, which struck Florida’s east coast as a Category 1 storm.
This year’s conditions, however, suggest an above-average risk of late-season development, prompting officials to maintain a heightened alert through the end of the traditional hurricane season on November 30 and possibly beyond.
Vigilance is particularly important for Caribbean nations in the coming days.
“We’re already starting to see the early signs of development, with showers and thunderstorms developing in the southern Caribbean. As the area of high pressure builds to the north, it’s going to create a very favorable environment for intensification,” DaSilva said.
AccuWeather experts estimate that tropical storms and hurricanes have already caused nearly $500 billion in damage and economic losses in the United States this year, including the devastating human life impacts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
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